Kazakhstan has the physical resources needed to become one of Eurasia’s largest renewable-energy markets. Its vast territory includes open steppe with strong wind conditions, southern regions with high solar potential and mountainous areas suitable for hydropower. The country also has enough land to accommodate projects at a scale that would be difficult in more densely populated markets.
Resource potential alone does not define Kazakhstan’s energy system. Coal remains the backbone of electricity generation, many conventional plants are aging and major industrial consumers require stable power throughout the year. Renewable energy must therefore expand while the country adds new generating capacity, modernizes its grid and reduces the risk of electricity shortages.
Kazakhstan’s renewable transition is moving from relatively small solar and wind farms toward gigawatt-scale projects supported by batteries and international capital. This is a more significant change than a simple increase in the number of renewable plants. It requires the national power system to operate in a different way.
Wind Power Is Becoming Kazakhstan’s Main Renewable Industry
Wind has emerged as the most important part of Kazakhstan’s renewable market. By the middle of 2025, the country had approximately 1.57 GW of installed wind capacity. Wind farms produced more than 2.6 billion kilowatt-hours during the first half of that year, representing more than 60% of electricity generated by the renewable facilities included in Kazakhstan’s official renewable-energy accounting.
The country’s strongest wind resources are found across broad areas of the steppe and in several natural wind corridors. The Dzungarian Gate near the Chinese border and the Shelek corridor east of Almaty are among the best-known locations, but commercially useful wind conditions exist in several northern, central and southern regions.
Early projects demonstrated that wind farms could operate under Kazakhstan’s climate conditions, which include severe winter temperatures, snow, dust and large seasonal variations. Projects such as the Zhanatas wind farm also showed that utility-scale developments could attract international lenders and operate through project-finance structures.
Wind is becoming more competitive because turbines can generate large volumes of electricity across Kazakhstan’s open terrain. In some regions, it can also complement solar output by producing more electricity during the night, winter or periods of lower sunlight.
The challenge is that the strongest wind resource is not always located close to demand or available transmission capacity. A technically excellent site may have limited commercial value if new power lines, substations or balancing resources are not developed at the same time.
Solar Established the Market, but Wind Is Providing the Next Scale
Solar power played a major role in Kazakhstan’s first period of renewable expansion. By June 2025, installed solar capacity had reached approximately 1.26 GW. Projects were developed in southern and southeastern regions where solar irradiation is stronger and winter conditions are generally less severe than in the north.
Solar farms near places such as Burnoye, Saran and Kapshagai helped establish relationships among the government, international financial institutions, private developers and equipment suppliers. They also demonstrated the importance of currency protection, long-term purchasing arrangements and predictable tariff rules in attracting foreign investment.
Solar remains suitable for additional utility-scale development, distributed generation and electricity supply for remote facilities. Kazakhstan’s mining, agricultural and transport sectors operate across large distances, creating potential uses for solar systems that reduce dependence on diesel generation or weak local networks.
However, solar’s role is limited by its concentration during daylight hours and by lower production during the winter, when electricity and heating demand can be high. Kazakhstan therefore needs a broader mix of wind, solar, hydropower, gas-fired flexibility and storage rather than relying on photovoltaic capacity alone.
Small hydropower contributes a smaller but useful part of the renewable portfolio. Approximately 288 MW of small hydro was operating by mid-2025, mainly in the south and southeast. Large hydropower plants are also important to Kazakhstan’s electricity system, although national statistics often report them separately from the wind, solar, small-hydro and bioenergy facilities classified under the renewable-support framework.
Gigawatt-Scale Wind and Batteries Mark a New Development Phase
The clearest sign of Kazakhstan’s changing renewable market is the move toward projects measured in gigawatts rather than tens of megawatts.
The Mirny project is expected to include a 1 GW wind farm and a 600 MWh battery-energy-storage system. TotalEnergies approved a $1.2 billion investment in the project in April 2026, with full capacity expected in 2029. TotalEnergies holds a majority interest, while Kazakhstan’s KazMunayGas and Samruk-Energy participate as state-linked partners.
Mirny is important because the battery is part of the project’s basic design rather than an optional addition. Storage will help smooth variations in wind production, provide electricity during periods of high demand and support the stability of the national grid.
Kazakhstan has also incorporated storage into its auction programme. The 2025 auction schedule offered 1.81 GW of renewable capacity, beginning with a 1 GW wind project combined with energy storage in the northern zone of the national power system.
These projects indicate that policymakers are no longer treating renewable capacity as an isolated source of electricity. New plants are increasingly expected to contribute to balancing, reliability and system adequacy.
Large projects also change the investment profile of the sector. They require stronger agreements on grid connection, land access, construction risk, currency exposure and long-term electricity purchases. They can attract major international developers, but their scale means delays or contractual disputes would have a larger effect on national targets.
Auctions Have Replaced Early Fixed-Tariff Development
Kazakhstan initially encouraged renewables through fixed tariffs and guaranteed electricity purchases. This framework gave developers enough revenue certainty to finance the country’s first generation of projects.
The market later shifted toward competitive auctions. Developers now bid for the right to build renewable capacity and sell electricity under long-term power-purchase agreements. Competition has helped lower tariffs and given the government more control over the volume, technology and location of new development.
Between the introduction of competitive auctions in 2018 and June 2025, Kazakhstan offered approximately 5.7 GW through renewable tenders and awarded around 5.2 GW. The system also moved toward site-specific auctions, in which transmission access, land or resource information can be assessed before developers submit bids.
Contract reforms have been important to this process. Renewable projects involve large initial investment and recover their costs over many years. Developers therefore require predictable purchasing arrangements and protection against risks such as inflation and currency depreciation. Indexation provisions and stronger institutional backing for the country’s renewable settlement system improved the bankability of projects.
The auction model provides a clear route toward Kazakhstan’s target of generating 15% of its electricity from renewable sources by 2030. Awarded capacity, however, does not automatically become operating capacity. Projects must still obtain financing, complete environmental and technical studies, secure equipment and connect to the grid.
The Electricity Network Must Connect a Continental-Scale Country
Kazakhstan’s geography creates an unusual grid challenge. The country covers a vast area, while its population and industrial demand are concentrated in separated regional centres. Many large coal plants are located in the north and centre, close to domestic coal resources. Southern demand centres have historically depended partly on long-distance transmission and electricity exchanges with neighbouring Central Asian systems.
Renewable development introduces new power flows. Wind farms may be located far from existing generation centres, while solar capacity is concentrated more heavily in the south. The network must transfer electricity between regions while managing rapid changes in wind and solar production.
Aging equipment adds another constraint. Kazakhstan needs to replace parts of its transmission and distribution system at the same time that it constructs new lines for renewable integration. Digital controls, forecasting systems and modern dispatch procedures will be necessary to operate a larger number of variable generators.
The country also needs flexible capacity. Batteries can respond quickly, but they are only one option. Hydropower, gas-fired plants, demand response and regional electricity trade can all help balance supply. Greater coordination with Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Russia and other connected markets could improve flexibility, although cross-border trade depends on infrastructure, commercial rules and regional water and energy agreements.
Renewable Growth Will Occur Alongside Conventional Generation
Kazakhstan is not replacing its fossil-fuel system in a single step. Coal and gas plants will continue to supply much of the country’s electricity during the renewable buildout, while the government is also investing in conventional generation and considering nuclear power.
This mixed strategy reflects concerns about electricity demand, industrial competitiveness and winter reliability. Mining, metals production, oil operations, railways and urban heating systems require dependable energy. Policymakers are therefore focused on adding capacity rather than closing conventional plants before replacement resources are available.
Renewables can still reduce the amount of fuel burned, limit exposure to aging coal assets and support new industrial projects. Green hydrogen, low-carbon metals and renewable power for mining have all attracted interest because Kazakhstan possesses energy resources, industrial land and access to markets in Europe and Asia.
The economic case will depend on whether renewable electricity can be delivered reliably and at a competitive cost. Projects designed only to satisfy a numerical target may have limited value. Projects linked to storage, transmission capacity and long-term industrial demand can make a larger contribution to the national economy.
Reaching 15% Requires Construction, Not Only Commitments
Kazakhstan has moved well beyond the earliest stage of renewable development. Installed capacity grew from less than 200 MW in 2014 to approximately 3.6 GW by the end of 2025, and wind has become a meaningful source of national electricity.
The next step is larger and more technically demanding. Reaching a 15% renewable share by 2030 requires the country to convert auction awards into operating plants, complete major wind projects, install storage and reinforce transmission across a very large territory.
Mirny and other storage-backed developments could establish a new model for Kazakhstan’s renewable sector. Their success would show that large variable resources can be integrated into a coal-based industrial power system without weakening reliability.
Kazakhstan’s renewable future will therefore be determined less by its theoretical wind and solar potential than by project execution. Grid modernization, bankable contracts, flexible generation and timely construction will decide whether the country’s renewable market remains a growing supplement to conventional power or becomes one of the principal foundations of its electricity system.
