Coal is not simply one part of South Africa’s energy system. It is the fuel around which much of the national power network, mining economy and heavy industrial base was built. Large coalfields in the north-eastern interior supported the construction of power stations close to mines, while long transmission lines carried electricity to Johannesburg, Durban, Cape Town and other demand centres. That structure helped South Africa develop an electricity-intensive economy, but it also created a deep dependence on ageing coal assets.
The country now faces two connected questions. It must keep enough coal-fired generation available to support electricity supply while preparing for the retirement of plants that cannot operate indefinitely. At the same time, the coal mining industry must respond to weaker long-term domestic demand, pressure on export logistics and growing competition in Asian markets.
Mpumalanga Remains the Centre of South African Coal
South Africa produced about 256.6 million tonnes of coal in 2024, keeping it among the world’s significant coal-mining countries. Most output is bituminous coal, and the domestic market absorbs a large share. Eskom alone uses roughly 100 million tonnes in a normal year to supply its power stations.
The industry is concentrated in Mpumalanga, where coal mining, electricity generation and associated services are closely linked. Mines around eMalahleni, Middelburg, Secunda and the Highveld supply both Eskom and industrial customers. The Waterberg coalfield in Limpopo provides another important resource base and supports the Medupi power station, although its distance from the main industrial centres makes transport and water availability important constraints.
Coal mining remains a major source of employment and local business activity. More than 90,000 people work directly in the sector, while many more depend on transport, maintenance, engineering, security and other services connected to mines and power stations. This concentration means that changes in coal demand have a strong regional effect. A mine closure can affect municipal revenue, local suppliers and household income at the same time.
The Electricity System Still Runs Mainly on Coal
Coal supplied about 83% of South Africa’s locally generated electricity in 2024. The share can vary from month to month as nuclear, wind, solar, hydropower, imports and diesel generation change, but coal remains the main source of power by a wide margin.
South Africa’s coal-fired fleet has approximately 42 GW of installed capacity. It includes older stations that have operated for several decades as well as the much newer Medupi and Kusile complexes. The system was designed to provide large amounts of baseload electricity to mines, smelters, factories, cities and households. When enough units are operating, the fleet can still meet most national demand. When breakdowns rise, however, the loss of several large generating units can quickly create a system-wide shortage.
This explains why coal remains central even as renewable capacity expands. Wind and solar projects can be built relatively quickly, but they require transmission connections, storage, flexible generation and market reform. South Africa cannot remove a large block of coal capacity before replacement electricity and grid infrastructure are ready. The transition is therefore governed as much by construction schedules and plant performance as by climate policy.
Export Potential Is Limited by the Route to Richards Bay
Coal exports provide foreign currency and give mining companies a market outside Eskom. South Africa exported an estimated 65 million to 70 million tonnes in 2024, with Asia receiving the majority. India was the largest single destination, while smaller volumes moved to other Asian, European and African markets.
Richards Bay Coal Terminal is the central asset in this trade. It has a design capacity of 91 million tonnes per year, but it exported only 52.08 million tonnes in 2024. The problem was not a shortage of terminal capacity. Rail performance restricted the amount of coal that mines could deliver to the port. Tonnage railed to the terminal improved by 10% from 2023, but remained far below the levels reached before the decline of the national freight system.
Some producers have responded by moving coal by road or using alternative ports, including Durban and terminals in neighbouring Mozambique. These routes can protect some sales, but they are generally more expensive and can create congestion, road damage and opposition from affected communities. Restoring reliable rail service would allow existing mines and the Richards Bay terminal to handle more exports without building an entirely new logistics chain.
The export market also changes the type of coal that producers seek to sell. Higher-quality coal can earn stronger international prices, while lower-grade material is often directed to domestic power stations. Competition between export and domestic markets can affect Eskom’s procurement costs, particularly when international prices rise sharply.
Coal Also Feeds South Africa’s Synthetic-Fuels Industry
Electricity generation is the largest use of South African coal, but it is not the only one. Sasol’s Secunda operations receive coal from five mines in Mpumalanga and convert it into synthesis gas. That gas is then used to manufacture liquid fuels and a wide range of chemical products.
This coal-to-liquids system gives South Africa a form of domestic fuel production despite its limited crude-oil output. It also makes the country’s coal economy more complex than a simple relationship between mines and power stations. Changes in coal policy affect transport fuels, chemicals, industrial employment and emissions from one of the country’s largest production sites.
Coal is also used in cement, metals and other industrial processes. These uses may decline more slowly than power-sector demand because some high-temperature applications are difficult to electrify. The long-term future of coal mining will therefore depend on both electricity policy and the pace at which industrial alternatives become commercially practical.
Plant Retirements Will Reshape the Coal Economy After 2029
South Africa’s 2025 Integrated Resource Plan describes a coal fleet approaching the end of its operating life. Under Eskom’s 50-year shutdown schedule, retirement begins on a larger scale from 2029. The plan indicates a reduction of about 8 GW between 2029 and 2030, followed by a further decline of roughly 15 GW between 2034 and 2042.
Those dates do not guarantee that every unit will close exactly on schedule. Electricity demand, plant condition, replacement capacity and security of supply will influence final decisions. Life extensions may keep selected units operating longer, but they would require maintenance spending and continued environmental-compliance work. Delaying retirement without improving performance would preserve nominal capacity without necessarily providing dependable electricity.
Komati provides an early example of the transition problem. The plant was closed and selected for repurposing with renewable generation, batteries and programmes intended to support workers and the surrounding area. The project is important because future closures will occur across a much larger part of Mpumalanga. Successful repurposing will require more than installing new equipment at old power-station sites. It will also require new industries, skills programmes, municipal support and investment that can replace economic activity linked to coal.
South African coal will therefore remain important for many years, but its role is changing. Domestic demand will be shaped by the reliability and retirement of Eskom plants, while export performance will depend heavily on rail recovery and Asian demand. The decisive issue is whether new generation, transmission capacity and regional economic development can advance quickly enough to manage that decline without weakening electricity security.
