Oil occupies a secondary position to natural gas in Uzbekistan’s energy economy, but it remains essential to the country’s transport system, industry and domestic fuel supply. The main issue is no longer whether Uzbekistan can become a significant oil exporter. It is whether the country can slow declining production, supply its refineries and limit growing dependence on imported crude and petroleum products.
Uzbekistan produced approximately 713,000 tonnes of crude oil in 2024, an 8.5% decline from the previous year. The downward movement continued during 2025, with production falling by almost 11% during the first seven months. By early 2026, crude output was close to 29,000 barrels per day.
This level is small compared with the country’s nominal refining capacity and expanding demand. Uzbekistan therefore has an oil system in which the downstream industrial base is larger than the domestic crude supply available to support it.
Declining Fields Have Changed Uzbekistan’s Position in the Oil Market
Uzbekistan was once able to meet more of its petroleum requirements from domestic fields. Production increased during the 1990s but subsequently entered a long decline as mature reservoirs became more difficult to operate and major new discoveries failed to replace falling output.
The country’s oil and condensate resources are spread across several geological regions. Important producing areas include the Fergana Valley, Bukhara-Khiva region, Ustyurt Plateau, Surkhandarya and parts of the Zarafshan area. Many fields are relatively small, mature or technically challenging compared with the giant fields found in neighboring Kazakhstan.
Uzbekneftegaz remains the central state company in the hydrocarbon sector. It operates fields, processing facilities and the Bukhara refinery while participating in exploration projects with foreign companies. Private operator Saneg has also held a substantial upstream position, particularly through assets connected to the Fergana region.
Recovering more oil from existing fields will require investment in geological analysis, well rehabilitation, pressure management and enhanced recovery. These methods may slow decline, but mature assets are unlikely to transform the national production outlook without commercially successful exploration elsewhere.
Uzbekistan reported combined proven crude oil and condensate reserves of approximately 19.5 million tonnes for 2024. The country also possesses oil shale resources and several underexplored basins, although the presence of a geological resource does not guarantee that it can be produced economically. Development depends on reservoir quality, drilling results, infrastructure and market conditions.
The production challenge has become more important as Uzbekistan’s population, vehicle fleet and industrial economy have expanded. Domestic consumption is increasing while the crude supply available to refineries is falling. Oil policy is therefore closely tied to fuel availability and import costs rather than export revenue.
Refining Capacity Exceeds the Domestic Crude Supply
Uzbekistan has three established oil refineries at Fergana, Alty-Arik and Bukhara. Together, these facilities provide far more processing capacity than current crude production can support at full utilization.
The Bukhara refinery has an annual capacity of approximately 2.5 million tonnes. It was designed to process domestic crude and condensate and supplies gasoline, diesel, aviation fuel and other products. Its position near the country’s central hydrocarbon-producing regions gives it an important role in the national supply network.
The Fergana refinery is one of the oldest and most strategically important industrial facilities in Central Asia. It produces gasoline, diesel, aviation kerosene, lubricants, bitumen, paraffin and other petroleum products. It is particularly important because it is Uzbekistan’s only domestic producer of several specialized lubricating oils.
The facility was sold to Saneg during Uzbekistan’s privatization program in 2022. A large modernization plan aimed to improve processing depth, increase product quality and expand production of fuels meeting modern environmental standards. The project included proposals for hydrocracking, hydrogen production and other advanced refinery units.
By June 2026, however, the Fergana refinery had returned to full state ownership. The State Assets Management Agency became its sole owner after Saneg’s remaining interest disappeared from the corporate register. The change created uncertainty about how the unfinished modernization program would be financed and completed.
The refinery illustrates the wider problem facing Uzbekistan’s downstream sector. Processing plants are valuable national assets, but their economic performance depends on reliable raw-material supplies. When domestic crude production is insufficient, refineries must operate below capacity, process condensate or rely on imported feedstock.
Modernization can improve fuel quality and raise the percentage of valuable products obtained from each tonne of crude. It cannot solve a basic shortage of crude oil on its own. Upstream development and dependable import routes must progress alongside refinery investment.
A Landlocked Oil System Depends on Regional Transport Links
Uzbekistan’s double-landlocked geography shapes every part of its oil supply chain. The country has no direct access to a seaport and must move imported crude or fuel through neighboring states.
Kazakhstan is the most practical external source because it produces large quantities of crude and shares a border with Uzbekistan. Existing regional infrastructure connects the Uzbek market with the wider pipeline system developed during the Soviet period.
One route carries oil from the Russian and Kazakh network through Pavlodar, Shymkent and central Uzbekistan toward the Bukhara refinery. Another connection between Shymkent and Tashkent can support deliveries of oil products. Rail transport also provides flexibility, although it is generally more expensive and may face capacity limits.
These links provide access to external supply but also create transit exposure. Uzbekistan depends on infrastructure, commercial agreements and operating conditions outside its own territory. Pipeline interruptions, regional demand, transport tariffs or changes in neighboring countries’ export strategies can affect the cost and availability of imported oil.
The country must also decide whether it is more efficient to import crude for domestic processing or import finished products directly. Using Uzbek refineries can support employment, industrial activity and supply control. Direct fuel imports may be more economical when refineries lack feedstock or require expensive modernization.
Energy security will depend on maintaining several options rather than relying on a single supplier or route. Storage capacity, railway terminals, product depots and cross-border agreements are therefore as important as domestic oil wells.
Ustyurt Exploration Offers Potential, but Not Immediate Supply
Uzbekistan continues to seek foreign partners for exploration, particularly in regions that have not been developed extensively. The Ustyurt Plateau in the northwest has become one of the most closely watched areas.
In May 2026, BP acquired a 40% participating interest in a production-sharing agreement covering six oil and gas exploration blocks in Ustyurt. Azerbaijan’s SOCAR retained a 30% interest and remained the operator, while Uzbekneftegaz held the remaining 30%.
The participation of a major international company provides technical and financial support for exploration. It also signals that foreign investors still see potential in Uzbekistan’s hydrocarbon geology.
Exploration should not be confused with confirmed commercial production. Seismic work, drilling and reservoir testing may take years, and unsuccessful wells remain possible. Even a discovery would require development planning, financing and connections to the domestic pipeline or processing network.
The project is nevertheless important because Uzbekistan needs new fields rather than only improvements at mature ones. Successful development in Ustyurt could provide feedstock for domestic facilities and reduce import requirements. It could also strengthen cooperation with Azerbaijan and other regional energy partners.
Oil Policy Is Becoming a Question of Supply Security
Uzbekistan is unlikely to emerge as a large international oil exporter under present conditions. Its more realistic goal is to stabilize domestic production, secure imported feedstock and operate its refineries efficiently enough to meet a greater share of national fuel demand.
Several factors will determine the outcome. Exploration must produce commercially viable discoveries. Mature fields require investment to slow decline. The future of the Fergana modernization program must be clarified, and imported crude must be available at prices that allow domestic refining to remain competitive.
Refinery ownership changes also show that sector reform will not follow a simple path from state control to privatization. Strategic assets may move between public and private ownership as the government balances investment needs with concerns about fuel security and industrial stability.
Uzbekistan retains valuable refining infrastructure, experienced energy companies and access to regional suppliers. Its central oil challenge is connecting these strengths. Without more crude, refinery capacity will remain underused. Without modern refineries and secure transport links, additional crude production will not translate fully into reliable domestic fuel supplies.
